Rainfall and Temperature Projection Analysis and Their Relation to The Potential Harvest Amount of Maize (Zea mays L.)

DOI: 10.22161/ijeab.103.21

Abstract:
Maize is one of the commodities used as a source of food for the Indonesian people besides rice. Maize is also often used as an industrial raw material, food or feed. Maize productivity in Indonesia in 2023 decreased by 0.07 tons/ha or 0.5% compared to the productivity in 2022 of 14.08 tons/ha. East Java Province is the region with the highest production in Indonesia. East Java contributes about 25.60 percent of Indonesia's total production. One of the problems in corn production is climate change. Climate change affects the agricultural sector with extreme changes in rainfall and temperature. Rainfall and temperature can affect evapotranspiration in determining crop water requirements. Water requirements can affect the quality and quantity of crop production. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct strategic mitigation and adaptation based on the possibility of climate change that occurs in the future using climate projection scenarios. The climate scenario used is Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The purpose of this study is to project the increase in rainfall and temperature in Tuban district and Malang district based on the RCP scenario and its relationship with the potential yield of maize. This research was conducted in December - January 2025. The research locations taken were Tuban Regency and Malang Regency. The research was conducted using descriptive analysis method. The research location used purposive sampling method based on consideration according to the required criteria, namely lowlands and midlands. The data used in this study are monthly rainfall projection data, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and average temperature. In addition, there are also longitude and latitude data, root depth, deplection fraction, pan evaporation, crop coefficient and correction factor. Climate projection scenario data is used with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenario models REG CM 4 and CSIRO MK 3.6. The results showed that rainfall and temperature projections as well as irrigation needs and potential crop yields showed that projections using RCP 8.5 showed a higher increase compared to RCP 4.5 which tended to experience stable fluctuations. In the rainfall projection, Malang Regency tends to experience a higher increase than Tuban Regency. Meanwhile, the temperature projection of Tuban Regency tends to show a higher increase compared to Malang Regency. Irrigation water demand in both regions tends to increase in August and September. Meanwhile, potential crop yields in both regions are projected to decline where Tuban Regency is more vulnerable to a higher yield decline compared to Malang Regency due to lower rainfall.

Keywords:
Climate projection, Maize, Climate change, Irrigation water demand, Potential crop yield.

Article Info:
Received: 18 May 2025; Received in revised form: 12 Jun 2025; Accepted: 17 Jun 2025; Available online: 21 Jun 2025

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