Trend Analysis and Seasonal Variability of Market Arrivals and Prices of Mustard in Haryana

DOI: 10.22161/ijeab.105.20

Abstract:
This study analyses long-term trends and seasonal variations in market arrivals and prices of mustard in Haryana, focusing on four major markets - Rewari, Bhiwani, Hisar, and Narnaul, over the period 2001–2020. Secondary tri-master data on arrivals and prices were examined using compound growth rates, trend equations, and seasonal indices to capture temporal and seasonal dynamics. Results indicate that arrivals remained largely stable until 2017, followed by a notable increase after implementation of e-NAM, with Rewari consistently recording the highest volumes. The compound growth rate of arrivals was positive in all markets except Hisar, with Narnaul registering the highest growth (12.9%). Prices showed a steady upward trend across all markets, with a state average growth rate of 7.4 per cent per annum and a high coefficient of determination (R² = 0.96). Seasonal analysis revealed a marked concentration of arrivals during March - June, peaking at 168.4 per cent above the annual average in 2019-20, while the lean seasons of July – Octoberand November – Februaryrecorded substantial deficits. Prices exhibited an inverse seasonal relationship, with the lowest index in March – June2012-13 (-1718.3%) and the highest in July – October2012-13 (995.7%). These findings underscore the need for improved storage facilities, staggered marketing, and effective policy interventions; such as rural warehouses, pledge finance schemes, and local processing units – tostabilise prices, reduce post-harvest distress sales, and enhance farmer income.

Keywords:
Mustard, market arrivals, price trends, seasonal variation, compound growth rate, e-NAM

Article Info:
Received: 08 Sep 2025; Received in revised form: 06 Oct 2025; Accepted: 11 Oct 2025; Available online: 18 Oct 2025

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